Arctic and Global Prediction Program

The Office of Naval Research (ONR) Arctic and Global Prediction Program is motivated by the rapid decline in summer ice extent that has occurred in recent years. This has prompted renewed Department of the Navy interest in understanding and predicting the Arctic physical environment at a variety of time and space scales. The ability to predict the location of the ice edge, the space-time evolution of the ice cover, and the ice thickness will be particularly critical to safe naval operations in the Arctic. To achieve this, models integrating the ocean, waves, ice and atmosphere must be able to represent the physical processes, interactions and feedbacks involved in the seasonal evolution of ice extent, area, thickness and volume. Consequently, the program has three focus areas:

• Developing integrated ocean-ice-wave-atmosphere earth system models for improved prediction at a variety of time scales
• Improving understanding of the physical environment and processes in the Arctic Ocean
• Investigating new technologies, e.g., sensors, platforms and communications, for sustained operation and observation in the challenging Arctic environment

The Arctic and Global Prediction Program is always interested in receiving planning letters for research that addresses these focus areas. However, for funding beginning in FY13 (starts Oct. 1, 2012), the program is particularly interested in the following topics:

• The development of sea ice and ocean products derived from remotely-sensed data
• Assimilation of in situ and remotely-sensed physical data and derived products into integrated predictive models of the Arctic system
• Improving sea ice model components of integrated Arctic models to advance predictive capabilities at high resolution
• Observations of ocean circulation and structure in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas as a contribution to the Arctic Observing Network (AON)

Planning letters allow prospective investigators to submit a brief description of their scientific ideas so that ONR may evaluate them and offer programmatic and technical feedback before time is invested in writing a full proposal. This allows ONR to give some indication of the likely success of a full proposal based on program interests and priorities. Planning letters for research to be supported by core funds beginning in FY13 should be prepared according to the guidelines and submitted no later than April 13, 2012.

An important criterion used in ONR's review process is program priority. If ONR is already funding a number of significant efforts in a particular area, the addition of more work on that topic may be of lower priority than adding new research efforts on a topic in which ONR has few funded projects. 

The Arctic program is committed to contributing to the Department of the Navy's science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) education efforts, particularly the education of the next generation of scientists specializing in the physics of the Arctic Ocean system. Investigators are encouraged to include students (undergraduate and graduate) and post-doctoral researchers in their research plans. As part of this commitment, the program will set aside some funds for an Early Student Support (ESS) Program to assist beginning graduate students working with ONR-funded investigators. For more information on ESS, prospective investigators should contact Dr. Martin Jeffries. 

The “Emerging Dynamics of the Marginal Ice Zone” Department Research Initiative (DRI) is now underway. A new DRI, “Sea State and Boundary Layer Physics of the Emerging Arctic Ocean”, and call for planning letters was announced in January 2012. Prospective investigators interested in the "Sea State" DRI are encouraged to contact Dr. Martin Jeffries.