Arctic and Global Prediction Program

The Office of Naval Research (ONR) Arctic and Global Prediction Program is motivated by the observed changes in the Arctic environment, such as the significant downward trend in summer ice extent that has occurred during the last three decades. This has prompted renewed Department of Navy interest in understanding and predicting the Arctic physical environment at a variety of time and space scales. The ability to predict the operational environment, such as the location of the ice edge, the space-time evolution of the ice cover and the ice thickness, will be particularly critical to enable safe and efficient naval operations in the Arctic. To achieve this, models integrating the ocean, waves, ice and atmosphere must be able to represent the physical processes, interactions and feedbacks involved in the seasonal evolution of ice extent, area, thickness and volume. Consequently, the program has three focus areas:

    • Developing integrated ocean-ice-wave-atmosphere Earth System models for improved Arctic prediction at a variety of time scales
    • Improving understanding of the physical environment and key processes in the Arctic Ocean
    • Investigating new technologies, e.g., sensors, platforms and communications, for sustained operation and observation in the challenging Arctic environment

The Arctic and Global Prediction Program is always interested in receiving planning letters for any research that addresses these focus areas and which are supported by the program’s core funds. For core funding beginning in FY16 (starts Oct. 1, 2015), the program is particularly interested in the following topics:

  • Sea ice dynamics and the rheological component of sea ice models
  • Remote sensing of sea ice characteristics and features such as fractures, leads and ridges
  • High fidelity sea ice modelling at scales of meters to 1 km

An important criterion we use in our review process is program priority. If we are already funding a number of significant efforts in a particular area, the addition of more work on that topic may be of lower priority than adding new research efforts on a topic in which we have few funded projects. Thus, prospective investigators should note that the Arctic and Global Prediction Program already has two, five-year Departmental Research Initiatives (DRI)s: “Emerging Dynamics of the Marginal Ice Zone” and “Sea State and Boundary Layer Physics of the Emerging Arctic Ocean.”

In addition to the two ongoing DRIs mentioned above , the program has a new, 5-year Departmental Research Initiative (DRI) — Stratified Ocean Dynamics in the Arctic (SODA) — which will run from FY16 through FY20. This DRI is motivated by the increase in open water area due to the continuing decline in summer sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean and the impact that might have on the highly stratified ocean, particularly the potential for increased turbulence, mixing and vertical heat transport. Prospective investigators are encouraged to read more about SODA before preparing planning letters .

Planning letters for research to be supported by core funds and by SODA DRI funds in FY16 should be prepared according to the guidelines and submitted no later than April 17, 2015. The purpose of planning letters is to allow prospective investigators to submit a brief description of their scientific ideas so that we may evaluate them and offer programmatic and technical feedback before time is invested in writing a full proposal. This allows us to give you some indication of the likely success of a full proposal based on program interests and priorities.

Program Contact Information

Name: Dr. Martin Jeffries

Title: Program Officer and Science Advisor

Department: Code 32

Division: Ocean Atmosphere and Space Research



Office of Naval Research
875 N. Randolph Street
Arlington, Va. 22203

Program Funding

Long Range Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) for Navy and Marine Corps Science and Technology 16-0001

N00014-16-R-BA001.pdf (PDF - 463.41 KB)

Amendment 0001 (PDF - 462.24 KB)

Amendment 0002 (PDF - 370.21 KB)

Published: October 1, 2015 12:15 PM EST | Full Proposals will be accepted until September 30, 2016 05:00 PM EST

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