Arctic and Global Prediction

The Arctic and Global Prediction program is motivated by the observed changes in the physical Arctic environment, and the desire to better understand and predict this environment at a variety of time and space scales. The ability to provide useful forecasts of the operational environment, such as the location of the sea ice edge, the characteristics and evolution of sea ice, and the wind and wave conditions at the surface, will be critical to enable safe and efficient naval operations in the Arctic. To achieve this, Arctic system models that integrate the ocean, waves, ice and atmosphere must appropriately represent the physical processes, interactions and feedbacks involved in the seasonal evolution of ice extent, area, thickness and volume. Consequently, the program has three focus areas:

  • Improving understanding of the physical environment and key processes in the Arctic Ocean;
  • Investigating new technologies, e.g., sensors, platforms, navigation and communications, that may enable a sustained observational capability in the challenging Arctic environment; and
  • Developing integrated ocean-ice-wave-atmosphere models for improved Arctic prediction at a variety of time scales.

Research Concentration Areas

The Arctic and Global Prediction Program is always interested in receiving planning letters for any research that addresses the three focus areas above, which are supported by the program’s core funding. For FY19 (beginning October 1, 2018), the program is particularly interested in research that addresses the following topics:

  • Sea ice variability and processes, and atmospheric and oceanic forcing, in the Bering Strait region;
  • Landfast ice characteristics and processes in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean; and
  • Thermodynamics of the sea ice cover and the water column immediately below the ice.

Research Challenges and Opportunities

While scientific quality is always the most important factor of the review process, an additional significant criterion is the priority of the research topic, which is based on a number of factors including the current funding profile of the overall Arctic program. If we have funded or are currently funding a number of significant efforts in a particular research area, the addition of more work on that topic may be of lower priority than supporting new research efforts on a topic in which we have few funded projects. Thus, prospective investigators are encouraged to review the summaries of completed and current Departmental Research Initiatives (DRIs):

  1. Emerging Dynamics of the Marginal Ice Zone, FY12-FY16
  2. Sea State and Boundary Layer Physics of the Emerging Arctic Ocean, FY13-FY17
  3. Stratified Ocean Dynamics in the Arctic (SODA), FY16-FY20
  4. Arctic Mobile Observing System science (AMOS), expected to begin in FY19.

Planning letters for research to be supported by the 322AG core program beginning in FY19 should be prepared according to these guidelines and submitted no later than October 1, 2018. The purpose of planning letters is to allow prospective investigators to submit a brief description of their scientific ideas so that we may evaluate them and offer programmatic and technical feedback before time is invested in writing a full proposal. This allows us to give you some indication of the likely success of a full proposal based on program interests and priorities. It is anticipated that full proposals would be invited in late November 2018 and proposals would be submitted by the end of February 2019. Award recommendations are likely to be made before late May 2019.

Program Contact Information

Name: Dr. Scott Harper

Title: Program Officer

Department: Code 322

Email for Questions:

How to Submit

For detailed application and submission information for this research topic, please see our Funding Opportunities page and refer to broad agency announcement (BAA) No. N00014-20-S-B001.

  • Contracts: All white papers and full proposals for contracts must be submitted through FedConnect; instructions are included in the BAA.
  • Grants: All white papers for grants must be submitted through FedConnect, and full proposals for grants must be submitted through; instructions are included in the BAA.

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